Posted at 1:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O117 -109  BET365 O116½ -110 Sportsinteraction O116½ -110 888Sport O116½ -110

Utah/Atlanta first half over 116½

Best Odds: -110 at BET365, Sportsinteraction and 888Sport

7:30 PM EST. This has become a familiar angle here at SportsWagers, especially when it pertains to these two programs. Why fade what keeps working? Unlike sides, totals are almost completely about what the numbers reveal, and the numbers tell two very similar stories as it relates to these two teams. This is the first of two non-conference meetings between the Jazz and Hawks, therefore it's not surprising that markets are a bit undecided on how the matchup will play out. The downtrodden Hawks, who can't seem to string together wins on a consistent basis and remain the NBA's worst team against the spread, opened as a 3½-point favorite at home. That's now down to just -1½ at most shops. The total opened around 238, then dropped to 235, and now seems to be ticking back up, sitting at 236½ in most places. Time to educate the sportsbooks and beat them at their own naivete.

The Jazz and Hawks are two of the most volatile teams in the association, and that's probably a big part of what has oddsmakers undecided on Tuesday. Trae Young's injury is also part of that, but we're not concerned. On the one hand, Atlanta has been consistent on offense for most of the season, at times boasting the NBA's most efficient offense. They've also been a fast-paced team for most of their four months of play. But on the right day against a better defense, we've seen some unusually low totals in recent Hawks' games. They beat Orlando at home two nights ago in a contest that barely eclipsed 200 points. Before the All-Star break, they only scored 99 points against a new-look Hornets' defense, and against slower paced teams like Houston and Cleveland, their totals again collapsed far under their typical average. 

No doubt the Hawks can be vulnerable at times, but we're not as worried about that tonight. We expect the Hawks to control the tempo and inflate the scoreboard against Utah. Why? Because the data tells us that Will Hardy's team is incapable of slowing them down. In February, no defense has been worse than the Utah Jazz. Full season, they own the worst defensive marks on the road. A young and developing outfit, Jazz  performances are often dependent on the style and execution of their opponent. Look at any of their recent games and you'll see high totals for their competition and therefore high totals overall, especially against offenses that are high-tempo and efficent from the floor. The Warriors dropped 269 points on them in two February games. The Lakers put up 138, Phoenix 129. Hell, even the Embiid-less Sixers scored 127 points on Utah at the Delta Center, and the haphazard offense of the Brooklyn Nets piled up an astounding 149 points on the Jazz at the Barclays Center.

Now that the total is ticking up, as it should, we're less inclined to take a shot at the full game over. The Hawks have been known to collapse in the second half. It's no surprise that they own the worst 3rd QTR mark against the spread among all 30 teams (20-37, -20.35 units), and their 4th QTR marks aren't very good either (-13.45 units this season). The first half total, on the other hand, simply cannot be right. The projected number suggests the Jazz and Hawks will combine for 58-59 points in each of the first two quarters, which just doesn't make any sense. Utah and Atlanta average a combined 119.6 ppg in the first half this season, and there are ample reasons to suggest that they can both positively regress tonight. After all, the Jazz own a capable offense (they ranked in the top 5 in January), they've been top 10 in pace all season, and the Hawks have been equally incapable of playing consistent defense (ranked 25th overall). Expect this game to start fast and with a ton of scoring. We have this first half ending at 123.

Farley

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