Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
As these NBA playoffs roll on and the stakes get higher, each possession becomes even more important than the last. At the start of this postseason, we suggested that the free wheeling ways of the regular season would be scrapped in favor of a more defensively focused game. For the most part that has been true, but as always there are some exceptions. In the case of the Warriors and Nuggets, the posted total has gone over in all three games. It would be very easy to pay the price of admission to see if that trend continues in Game 4, but we’ll take a different approach. Like the Raptors yesterday, we expect a pushback from the Nuggets before they are sent packing. With that might come a slower pace of play. The Warriors have covered all three games and the total has gone over in all three too. How did Einstein define insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Expect some adjustments from the Nuggets here.
As for the other three series playing today, it does not appear that there has been much of an adjustment to these totals. The Bucks and Bulls went under their total easily last game, which was 222 at close. Today, that number is 219. If we thought a 3-pointer would make the difference, we’d not be attacking. The same can be said for Heat and Hawks, who sport the same 221½ total that was posted in Game 3. That one went just a half point under, but with the Hawks back in the series, we again expect a tighter, more closely defended game from both sides. Finally, the Suns and Pelicans blew past their Game 3 total of 215 and today oddsmakers posted what looks like a gimme for over betters (215). However, we are going to trust that again, after taking Game 3 and making it a series, each possession will be of the utmost importance and therefore not as free-wheeling.
Finally, it’s Sunday, which means there are two afternoon games, which can create some unexpected challenges. Routines are often thrown out of whack, as players sleeping and eating patterns are not the same as a regular weekday clash. Also, think about how your life changes on the weekend. Do you go out binge drinking, spend more time with family, catch up on your favorite show, go to the movies or watch the fights (UFC or Tyson Fury) or maybe you’ve got a date night or your Saturday nights are for the boys. Do you think multimillionaire NBA players are any different? The home teams have all the distractions that come from being at home with family and friends, while the road teams may have had a team bonding experience at the local “ballet” if you know what we mean. We’ve been watching this league long enough to know that Sundays are not like any other.
Officially, we’re in on each under in today’s NBA games.
Bucks/Bulls u219.5 -104
Warriors/Nuggets u224.5 -107
Heat/Hawks u221 +100
Suns/Pelicans u215 -101
Total units wagered = 8.24
4 NBA Playoffs wagers (Risking 8.24 units - To Win: 0.00)