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Posted at 11:00 AM EST

Denver +7½ over Los Angeles 

NBA Western Conference Finals – Game Two

7:30 PM EST. Heading into the playoffs, the Lakers were burning holes in their backer’s pockets when play resumed so by the time the playoffs rolled around, the Lakers stock was actually a bit low. The Lakers would subsequently meet a couple of opponents that brought a little market hype with them (Portland and Houston). The Lakers were undervalued to start both series thanks to the combination of being a liability in bubble play combined with the market presence of both their opponents. This in a nutshell is recency bias working in the favor of Los Angeles at the expense of the Rockets and Trailblazers. Moreover, the Lakers were not even favored to win the West. it was their cross-town rival, the Clippers who were the odds on choice to represent the West in the NBA Finals. In fact, before the Lakers/Houston and Denver/Clippers series, one could have taken back +120 on the Lakers to win the West.  

Denver came into Game 1 of this series off their resonating 15-point win over the West favorites in Game 7. That set them up to hog the spotlight in Game One and render the Lakers undervalued yet again. We missed that opportunity and regretted it after the Lakers mopped the floor with the Nuggets and now the narrative has very quickly shifted. The Lake Show defeated the Nugs 126-114 but the final tally does not indicate how truly dominant L.A was, as they led by as much as 27 points, taking a 24-point edge into the final quarter of play before the Lakers called off the dogs. 

Overall, the Lakers have won and covered successfully in their last five outings and they have gone 9-1 ATS in their previous 10 outings. The Game One result backed up by the aforementioned trends now positions the Nuggets to be a live underdog. While the line moved by just a mere half point from its Game One figure despite Los Angeles obliterating Denver, we have to wonder how many folks that played Denver last game and never stood a chance are going to come back on them today at nearly the same price. Probably 1 in 1000.

Finally, if you watched college football yesterday and followed their 24-hour sports news feed gliding across the bottom of your screen, you could not help but notice the news that Lebron James was steamed up over the disrespect he was shown in the NBA MVP voting by receiving just 16 of 101 votes. While that has nothing to do with the X’s and O’s of this game, it does put Lebron at the forefront of NBA news and discussions and brings even more attention to their current dominance. Be aware of the constant influence the media has on the marketplace and don’t get caught playing the side the books want you to play. We have no idea who is going to cover this game and it wouldn’t surprise us if the Lakers won by 30 but that’s out of our hands. We’re looking at which team checks the boxes to get the cover and have concluded that the books are daring you to bet the Lakers at pretty much the same price as last game when they mopped the floor with the Nugs. 

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