Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland -107 over Tampa Bay
8:00 PM EST. Game 4 of the ALCS, and Cleveland goes for a 3-1 stranglehold at Progressive Field after taking Game 3 by a 3-2 score on Thursday. The price on the home team is basically a pick'em, and we understand the hesitation: Tampa Bay has a named starting pitcher with a shiny 15-6 record and a 3.10 ERA, and Cleveland has, well, everybody. The Guardians are running a bullpen game because they're out of regular starters, and on paper that looks like a problem. In practice, with this bullpen, in this ballpark, against this lineup right now, we'll take Cleveland's entire pitching staff over Tampa Bay's starter at this price.

Because that starter, Nick Martínez, is not what his ERA says he is. His DRA- is 116, his strikeout rate was the worst of any qualified starter in baseball, he allows more contact than any full-time starter in the game, and he does it all with a 92-mph fastball he throws two-thirds of the time in a league that lives at 96. It has worked because he's a master of the edges of the plate and because the contact he gives up is mostly harmless, high fly balls that die at the warning track instead of leaving the yard, with an elite outfield defense running them down behind him. Credit him for making it work all year. But this is October, Tampa Bay's margin for error is gone, and Martínez lasted just 3? innings against the Yankees in the ALDS while giving up two runs. A contact pitcher who can't miss bats is one loud inning away from ending his night early, and once this game gets into the middle innings, it's bullpen against bullpen — and that is a fight Cleveland wins.

Compare the arms. Cleveland's Johnny Wholestaff act only works because the cast is this good: Cade Smith, Erik Sabrowski and Daniel Espino all strike out hitters at rates in the high 30s, and the whole group already showed you the blueprint on Thursday, throwing four scoreless, one-hit innings, with Smith needing just 18 pitches to do his part. Nobody for Cleveland has to face a Rays hitter twice, nobody is getting left out there to take one for the team, and every pitching change Stephen Vogt makes brings in another arm Tampa Bay doesn't want to see. Meanwhile the Rays' bats are the coldest thing in this series. Chandler Simpson is about the only regular producing, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero have done almost nothing, Yandy Díaz has been quiet, and Tampa Bay keeps stranding what few runners it gets. In October, against pitching like this, you either hit the ball out of the park or you go home frustrated, and the Rays aren't hitting the ball out of the park.

Tampa Bay knows how important this game is, with Drew Rasmussen waiting for Game 5 and Cleveland's best starters lined up for Games 6 and 7 if it gets that far, and that desperation is already built into a price that makes a 2-1 home team a coin flip. The projection systems don't see a coin flip. They make Cleveland closer to a 57% proposition, and you only need to be right about 52% of the time to cash at -107. We'll side with the team playing at home, with the deeper bullpen, the warmer bats, and the series lead, and we'll lay the short price to do it. Recommendation: Cleveland -107

Sportsinteraction