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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Milwaukee +133 over LA Dodgers

National League Championship Series — Game 4

8:00 PM ET. The Dodgers are running out of games, but apparently, the betting market hasn't run out of reasons to make them substantial favorites. Los Angeles is staring at a 3-0 series deficit, its offense has been largely invisible, its pitching staff has been repeatedly exposed, and Milwaukee continues to find new ways to beat a team that was supposed to be considerably better. Yet here we are again, being asked to pay a premium for the Dodgers because Tyler Glasnow is starting against Dustin May. The pitching matchup favors Los Angeles, but there's considerably more to this game than the names on the mound.

Wednesday's 6-2 Milwaukee victory was another example of what makes this Brewers team so dangerous. Jake Bauers delivered the crushing blow with a home run off Blake Snell, and Garrett Mitchell followed with another. What had been a tight game suddenly became another comfortable Milwaukee victory. The Brewers aren't simply waiting for opponents to make mistakes. They're extending at-bats, forcing pitchers to work, taking extra bases and capitalizing when opportunities appear. It's an approach that has frustrated the Dodgers throughout this series.

Glasnow certainly represents a difficult assignment, but his command remains an issue. He walked five batters in just 4? innings against Atlanta in his previous postseason start, and that's particularly relevant against a Milwaukee lineup that has demonstrated considerable patience. Glasnow also struggles to control the running game, which plays directly into one of Milwaukee's strengths. The Brewers have the speed and aggressiveness to turn a walk or single into a scoring opportunity without requiring three consecutive hits. If Glasnow's pitch count starts climbing, Dave Roberts could once again find himself reaching for his bullpen earlier than anticipated.

May is hardly an intimidating alternative. His 4.70 ERA reflects a season of inconsistent results, and there's no denying that Glasnow has been the more effective starter. However, May's stuff has improved considerably, with his fastball back around 97 MPH, and Milwaukee doesn't require him to pitch like an ace. Pat Murphy has constructed a pitching approach around getting useful innings from his starters before turning things over to a deep collection of relievers capable of handling multiple innings.

That bullpen has been one of Milwaukee's greatest advantages throughout October. Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, Trevor Megill and JoJo Romero give Murphy plenty of options, while Shane Drohan provides additional length. There are legitimate concerns about workload and familiarity, particularly with Ashby and Uribe, but Milwaukee has enough depth to distribute the innings. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has already been forced into uncomfortable bullpen situations, and its relievers haven't consistently delivered when called upon.

Then there's the offense. The Dodgers have yet to produce consecutive strong offensive performances this postseason. Shohei Ohtani has been playing through apparent physical limitations, Will Smith only recently emerged from a prolonged slump, and the lineup has struggled to generate sustained pressure. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been producing timely hits throughout the series and has demonstrated that it can win without relying exclusively on the home run.

Perhaps the biggest difference between these clubs is how they're manufacturing offense. Milwaukee can steal bases, pressure defenders and extend innings through disciplined plate appearances. Los Angeles remains heavily dependent on its established stars producing extra-base hits. That's a dangerous formula when those stars aren't consistently delivering.

The Dodgers are certainly capable of winning this game, and Glasnow gives them a legitimate starting-pitching advantage. But that advantage is hardly a secret, and it's being priced accordingly. Milwaukee has won the first three games of this series, has the more versatile offense and possesses the bullpen depth to overcome another short outing from its starter.

At this price, the Brewers need to win approximately 41% of the time to justify the wager. The starting-pitching disparity is significant, but Los Angeles is being priced as though everything else we've witnessed in this series is irrelevant. Milwaukee has earned considerably more respect than that, and the opportunity to complete the sweep at a generous plus-money price is worth taking.

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