Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland  +105 over Chicago

4:00 PM EST. The toughest game to win in any playoff series is the closeout game. Chicago has already done the heavy lifting, winning the first two games and putting Cleveland on the brink. Now comes the part where the market starts treating the final victory as though it's merely a formality.

Cleveland actually opened as the favorite for Game 3. The market promptly came pouring in on Chicago, flipping the favorite entirely and pushing the White Sox all the way to roughly -121. That's a significant move, particularly in a game in which the underlying numbers don't suggest Chicago deserves that type of adjustment.

In fact, the projection supplied for this game makes Cleveland a 51.2% favorite to Chicago's 48.8%, essentially calling this a coin flip with a slight lean toward the Guardians.   Yet we're now getting Cleveland at plus money because the White Sox have won the first two games and the market wants no part of a team staring at elimination.

That's precisely when we're interested.

Cleveland hasn't hit worth a damn in this series. José Ramírez, Angel Martínez and Brayan Rocchio are all still looking for their first hits, the Guardians haven't homered, and seemingly every important ball they've put in play has found a glove. Jo Adell came within inches of tying Game 2 with a two-run homer that died at the wall. That's frustrating if you've been backing Cleveland, but it doesn't mean those results have to continue.

There isn't much of a conventional starting-pitching matchup here, either. Cleveland is expected to open with Daniel Espino before turning things over to Joey Cantillo, with essentially everybody available behind them. Foster Griffin and Tanner Bibee could also be used if necessary. This is an elimination game, so Cleveland has absolutely no reason to save anybody for tomorrow.    

Chicago's pitching arrangement is even less conventional. Sean Newcomb is expected to open after throwing 41 pitches Monday, and from there it could be Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, Erick Fedde, Davis Martin or some combination of the bunch. Chicago has plenty of available arms, but this isn't a spot where we're laying a price because of some obvious starting-pitching advantage.   

And while the White Sox bullpen has been excellent, some of its most important arms have already accumulated significant work. Grant Taylor threw 42 pitches in Game 1 and returned for four more outs in Game 2. He'll presumably be available again, but asking him for another marathon appearance would be a different story.  

None of this means Cleveland suddenly has to start pounding the baseball. It means we're getting plus money in a game that was initially priced with the Guardians favored because the market has reacted aggressively to what it just watched.

Chicago is 2-0 in the series. Cleveland hasn't hit. The White Sox are at home with a chance to celebrate. All of that makes Chicago incredibly easy to bet.

Closing somebody out isn't nearly as easy.

The market has moved far enough. We'll take the desperate team, the plus price and another day of baseball.

Sportsinteraction