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Posted on Sept 28 Before Game 1

MLB Playoffs - Series Wager

Chicago -105 over San Diego

San Diego finished with a slightly better record at 91-71, but the standings don't come close to telling the story of these two teams. Chicago went 89-73 while producing a massive +147 run differential, compared with only +41 for San Diego. The Cubs' Pythagorean record was 96-66, while the Padres' was just 85-77. That's an enormous underlying-performance gap for a series being priced essentially as a coin flip.

The biggest advantage belongs to Chicago's offense. The Cubs led Major League Baseball at 5.2 runs per game and finished second in DRC+. They were also first against left-handed pitching and second against righties. This isn't an offense built around one or two hitters surrounded by easy outs. Eight Chicago starters posted walk rates of at least 9.4%, the Cubs had the second-lowest swing rate in baseball and their contact rate tied for fourth. They make pitchers work, control the strike zone and don't provide many comfortable places for an opposing pitcher to hide.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has become the centerpiece of it all. He joined the 40-40 club, led the National League with 6.3 WARP and dramatically improved his plate discipline, raising his OBP from .287 to .372. Seiya Suzuki produced a .270/.368/.473 line with a 122 DRC+, while Alex Bregman, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ and others make this lineup exceptionally deep. Chicago also has enough bench flexibility to manipulate matchups against left-handed pitching late in games.

San Diego's offense is much more top-heavy. Fernando Tatis Jr. remains a dangerous hitter and Manny Machado recovered after an awful first couple of months, but the Padres scored only 4.4 runs per game and finished essentially league average offensively. Xander Bogaerts had a .667 OPS, Jackson Merrill didn't take the expected step forward, and San Diego has had to extract meaningful production from reclamation projects like Ty France and Dustin Harris. The Padres went 19-6 in September, which makes them look dangerous coming in, but some of what drove that late surge isn't something we're eager to pay a premium for in October.

The strongest argument for San Diego is its bullpen, and it's a legitimate one. Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez give the Padres an outstanding late-game trio. Miller was ridiculous, posting a 1.67 ERA, 1.23 FIP and 47.4% strikeout rate. If San Diego gets to the sixth or seventh inning with a lead, the Cubs are going to have their work cut out for them. In a best-of-three, that bullpen is San Diego's greatest weapon.

But the Padres have to get to that bullpen with a lead, and their starting rotation is nowhere near as imposing. Michael King owns a shiny 3.21 ERA, but his 104 DRA- and 4.19 FIP paint a much more ordinary picture, while his underlying numbers suggest Petco Park has helped him. Nick Pivetta has pitched extremely well since returning from injury, but he made only four September starts after missing months. If this reaches Game 3, San Diego's choices become Robbie Ray, whose advanced numbers were ugly, or Walker Buehler. The Padres' pitching advantage is overwhelmingly concentrated in the back of the bullpen rather than throughout the staff.

Chicago has its own pitching uncertainty. Kevin Gausman is dealing with inflammation in his left shoulder, although his bullpen session reportedly went well. If healthy, his 89 DRA- suggests he pitched considerably better than his 4.51 ERA indicates. Matthew Boyd is available behind him, and Shota Imanaga gives Chicago another quality option if the series reaches a third game. The Cubs' bullpen isn't remotely as dominant as San Diego's, but Chicago doesn't need to match Miller and company arm-for-arm when it owns such a significant advantage offensively.

That's where the price becomes attractive. Chicago outscored its opponents by 106 more runs than San Diego did, produced baseball's highest-scoring offense and posted underlying numbers suggesting it was significantly better than its 89 wins. San Diego won two more games, has home field and owns the superior bullpen, but those obvious advantages are already reflected in the market.

In a short series there is always variance, and San Diego's bullpen is capable of shortening every game. But at -105, we're taking the club with the substantially better offense, vastly superior run differential and stronger season-long underlying profile. Chicago's 89-73 record actually undersells how well it played.

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