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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati -1½ +250 over Atlanta

7:15 PM EST. Brandon Williamson (LHP- CIN, 5.56 ERA) takes the ball against JR Ritchie (RHP- ATL, 5.03 ERA), and this is certainly not a matchup where we're pretending either starter is going to win a Cy Young award. Williamson's current numbers are rough, but the important point is that Atlanta's right-hander is carrying a 5.03 ERA with a 4.93 xERA, 5.66 FIP and 4.93 xFIP. Ritchie has struck out 8.33 per nine, but he's also walking 5.46 per nine, and that combination creates far too much traffic. His 1.47 WHIP tells the same story.

Williamson has a 5.78 xERA, 6.22 FIP and 5.81 xFIP, so there is no reason to dress him up as something he isn't. His 6.39 K/9 is modest and his 5.56 BB/9 is a problem. The difference is that Cincinnati doesn't need Williamson to dominate. The entire handicap revolves around getting a number large enough to compensate for the uncertainty on the mound, and that's exactly what we're getting with the reverse run line.

Ritchie is the pitcher we're looking to attack. The 13.7% walk rate is particularly attractive for a Cincinnati lineup because free passes create scoring opportunities without requiring the Reds to string together hit after hit. His current FIP of 5.66 is actually worse than his ERA, while his xERA sits just under five. That's not the profile of a pitcher who deserves to be treated like a dependable favorite, especially when the price is asking us to lay two runs.

This is precisely where the beefed-up number earns its keep. We're not buying Cincinnati because Williamson suddenly became trustworthy; we're buying the Reds because Ritchie has been far too generous with baserunners and the Atlanta pitching profile gives Cincinnati a realistic path to a multi-run win. The ugly starting-pitcher matchup is already baked into the price. We take the unpopular road side, hope Williamson gives us enough early innings, and let Cincinnati's bats do the rest.

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