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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati +180 over Los Angeles

6:40 PM EST. Andrew Abbott (LHP- CIN, 4.78 ERA) gets the start for Cincinnati against Blake Snell (LHP- LAD, 1.91 ERA) of Los Angeles. The pitching numbers clearly favor Snell, but that isn't the argument we're making here. Abbott has the less impressive surface profile, yet the price is reflecting every bit of that difference and then some. This is a numbers play, plain and simple. We aren't being asked to prove Abbott is the better pitcher; we're being given a plus-money price on a home team in a game where the market has already decided exactly how this matchup should look.

Snell's current form explains why Los Angeles is going to attract the attention. His 1.91 ERA comes with a strong strikeout rate and excellent run prevention, making him the obvious name for bettors looking at the pitching matchup. That's precisely where the opportunity comes from. Baseball is a nine-inning game, not a starting-pitcher contest, and Cincinnati only needs enough offense to turn a close game into a profitable one. The Dodgers can have the better pitcher on paper and still leave the door open for the home side.

Late-season baseball also creates some unusual pricing, particularly with a team like Cincinnati playing in front of its home crowd. There is something to be said for the Reds giving their fans one more reason to enjoy the final stretch of the schedule. Nobody needs to manufacture some elaborate motivational angle here. Cincinnati has a home game, a favorable price and an opportunity to finish the season with a little noise in front of its own supporters. Sometimes that's all the angle needs to be.

We're not going to overthink this one. The Dodgers deserve their respect, Snell deserves his, and none of that changes the fact that the number on Cincinnati is simply too appealing to ignore. This is the type of late-season plus-money position where we're willing to take the less popular side and let the game decide it. Give the Reds the home field, the price and one more hurrah for their fans.

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