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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington -1½ +185 over L.A. Angels

4:05 PM EST. Andrew Alvarez (LHP – Washington, 3.60 ERA) gets the start for the Nationals, while Los Angeles is going with a bullpen game rather than a conventional starter.

That setup puts Washington in an appealing position. Alvarez has been the more clearly defined arm in this matchup, and the focus should be on his current underlying performance rather than simply the ERA. His strikeout ability, walk rate and xERA provide a better indication of how well he is actually pitching, while Washington also knows exactly what role it is asking its starter to handle. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has to piece this game together from the bullpen from the opening pitch. That is a difficult way to attack a road game, particularly against a Washington lineup that gets to see a succession of different arms and styles.

We aren't being asked to predict a tight one-run game and hope Washington hangs on. The Nationals have the opportunity to build pressure throughout the game against a pitching staff being asked to cover a full nine innings without a traditional starter. Once Los Angeles starts cycling through relievers, the matchup becomes less about one pitcher dominating and more about Washington continually finding favorable situations. That gives the home side a legitimate path to creating separation.

Washington has the defined starter, home-field advantage and a much cleaner plan for navigating the game. Los Angeles is asking its bullpen to carry the entire pitching burden. We expect the Nationals to take advantage and win this game by enough to make the enhanced run line worthwhile.

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