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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Tampa Bay -1½ +165 over Atlanta

7:15 PM EST. Freddy Peralta (RHP- TB, 4.96 ERA) gives Tampa Bay the more accomplished arm in this matchup, and the underlying numbers are much more encouraging than the ERA suggests. Peralta has 140 strikeouts across 147 innings, good for 8.6 K/9, while his 3.3 BB/9 leaves him with a respectable strikeout-to-walk profile. More importantly, his current 4.11 xERA is well below the ERA, suggesting the run prevention has not matched the quality of his pitching. His .303 xwOBA also points to a pitcher whose underlying results are considerably better than the surface number.

AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP- ATL, 7.41 ERA) presents a much easier target from a statistical standpoint. He has only 17.2 innings this season, with 15 strikeouts and 11 walks, translating to 7.6 K/9 and a massive 5.6 BB/9. His 17.9% strikeout rate is not enough to offset the free passes, while his 13.1% walk rate has created far too much traffic. The encouraging piece for Atlanta is a 4.30 xERA, but that number still leaves a considerable gap between the underlying run-prevention estimate and the actual results.

 We are not being asked to trust Tampa Bay at a short price with Peralta simply because of his reputation; we are getting a chance to attack Atlanta with a pitcher who has struggled badly to command the baseball. Tampa Bay has the better strikeout foundation on the mound, and Peralta's xERA gives us a legitimate reason to believe his current ERA is overstating how poorly he has pitched.

This is exactly the type of price we want to take a shot with on the reverse run line. The Rays have the more reliable starting pitcher, the better control profile and the pitcher whose underlying metrics suggest improvement is coming. Smith-Shawver has to navigate an extremely thin margin with those walk numbers, and that creates an opening for Tampa Bay to separate. Tampa Bay -1.5 on the reverse run line is the play, and we are taking the beefed-up number expecting the Rays to win by multiple runs.

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