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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New York -1½ +205 over Boston

1:35 PM EST. Will Warren (RHP–NYY, 4.43 ERA) and Ranger Suárez (LHP–BOS, 3.36 ERA) give us a matchup that is considerably closer on the surface. Both clubs are battling for position, and with each having a more favorable opponent waiting in the next series, this becomes an important game to take care of business now. We are not looking to overstate the difference between the two starters, because there isn't a large one. 

Warren's current ERA is higher, but his underlying profile makes him more competitive than the headline number suggests. The right-hander has done a respectable job generating strikeouts while limiting free passes, and that combination gives him a path to work through a Boston lineup without constantly putting extra runners on base. Suárez owns the better ERA, but the overall pitching numbers between these two are close enough that we are not prepared to treat Boston as having a major advantage on the mound.

We are not paying a premium for the Yankees; we are taking the beefed-up number and asking New York to win by two runs. With the pitching matchup relatively even, the home side becomes much more attractive at the enhanced price. New York also has the deeper offensive environment around it to turn a close game into the required margin late.

This is a price play more than a claim that New York is dramatically superior. Both teams are fighting for the same position, the starting pitching is reasonably close, and neither side has a compelling statistical edge large enough to justify a wide separation in the betting market. We are taking the Yankees at home on the reverse run line and trusting the stronger number to provide the value. New York -1.5 is the play.

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