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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Diego +120 over Tampa Bay

Casey Mize (RHP- San Diego, 3.46 ERA) 

Shane McClanahan (LHP- Tampa Bay, 3.11 ERA)

7:10 PM EST. We are going with San Diego on the road in what looks to be a much tighter pitching matchup than the price may suggest. Shane McClanahan owns the lower ERA at 3.11, but Casey Mize has been every bit competitive from a run-prevention standpoint with a 3.46 mark. That is not enough separation for us to automatically make Tampa Bay the side, particularly with Mize bringing a solid current strikeout profile and the ability to work through innings without giving away unnecessary opportunities.

McClanahan is obviously the bigger strikeout arm, but the Padres do not need to win the mound comparison. They need Mize to give them a legitimate chance to get to the middle innings with the game intact. His current ERA indicates he has been doing exactly that. The gap between these two starters is narrow enough that we are more interested in the betting number than the reputations attached to the names.

From the San Diego perspective, this is a spot where we are looking for value rather than perfection. Mize gives the Padres a competent starting point, while McClanahan's advantage comes primarily from his ability to miss bats. That makes Tampa Bay dangerous, but it does not make them unbeatable. San Diego has enough on the mound to prevent this from becoming the one-sided matchup the market may be suggesting.

We are taking the Padres and trusting the number. Casey Mize gives San Diego the type of pitching foundation we need, and the difference between these two starters is not large enough to justify treating Tampa Bay as a prohibitive favorite. San Diego is the value side for us today.

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