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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington -1½ +165 over Colorado

Jake Irvin (RHP- Washington, 5.84 ERA) 

Gabriel Hughes (RHP- Colorado, 7.15 ERA)

1:05 PM EST. The pitching numbers are ugly on both sides, but Washington has the more workable profile for this particular matchup. Jake Irvin's ERA is certainly nothing to write home about, yet the important point for this wager is that Colorado brings an even less reliable starting option to the mound. Gabriel Hughes enters with a 7.15 ERA, and that puts considerable pressure on the Rockies to produce early before Washington's bullpen becomes a factor. We are not asking the Nationals to dominate; we are simply looking for them to take advantage of the weaker starting pitching and stay on the right side of the number.

Irvin's current strikeout and walk profile gives Washington a little more stability than the ERA alone suggests. The right-hander has enough ability to miss bats while avoiding the extended innings that can quickly turn this matchup into a Colorado slugfest. Hughes, by comparison, has had difficulty keeping the opposition off the bases and has not shown the type of run prevention necessary to justify making Colorado the preferred side. 

We are not interested in laying a price on Washington , and we certainly don't need to. The run line gives us the opportunity to beef up the number while backing the side with the more favorable starting-pitching situation. Colorado's pitching has to be the concern here, and Hughes has not provided enough current form to make us want to stand in front of Washington at home.

This is not a matchup where we need to get cute. Washington has the better opportunity to control the game from the mound, and the combination of Hughes' current results and Colorado's vulnerability on the hill gives us the angle we need. We are taking Washington on the run line and looking for the Nationals to put some distance between themselves and Colorado.

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