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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New York -1½ +135 over Baltimore

Will Warren (RHP- New York) — 4.46 ERA

Chris Bassitt (RHP- Baltimore) — 5.47 ERA

6:35 PM EST. This is a matchup where the numbers point us toward New York, particularly at the price being offered on the run line. Will Warren comes in with the better ERA at 4.46 compared with 5.47 for Chris Bassitt, but the more important separation is in the underlying strikeout and walk profile. Warren's current K-BB% sits at 26.8%, an excellent indicator of his ability to generate outs without putting unnecessary runners on base. Bassitt's current K-BB% is considerably lower, leaving him with a much narrower margin for error against the Yankees lineup.

The other number that stands out is Warren's 23.4% strikeout rate compared with 24.6% for Bassitt. That tells us there is not a significant swing-and-miss advantage on the Baltimore side despite the Orioles getting the benefit of home field. Warren's ability to pair the strikeouts with a much stronger K-BB% is what makes his profile more attractive. Bassitt, meanwhile, is carrying a 5.47 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP, numbers that leave plenty of opportunity for New York to create traffic and force him into difficult counts.

We also have to question how much confidence can be placed in Baltimore's starter at this price. Bassitt has allowed too much traffic this season, while Warren's underlying numbers suggest a pitcher whose performance is better represented by his skills than the ERA alone. The Yankees are not being asked to win a low-scoring pitchers' duel; they are being asked to take advantage of a starter with a 5.47 ERA and limited separation between his strikeout and walk rates. That is the matchup we want when laying the run line.

We are taking New York on the road on the run line. Warren owns the better ERA, the superior K-BB% and the more attractive overall statistical profile, while Bassitt's 5.47 ERA and 1.62 WHIP make Baltimore difficult to justify at the current number. This is not a play based on reputation or name value; the underlying pitching numbers give us the reason to back the Yankees, and we expect New York to win this game by multiple runs.

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