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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Diego +120 over Cleveland

Michael King (RHP- San Diego, 3.38 ERA)
Gavin Williams (RHP- Cleveland, 3.56 ERA)

Michael King brings the better current run-prevention profile into this road matchup. His 3.38 ERA is backed by a 1.17 WHIP, with 109 strikeouts and 50 walks across 125.1 innings. That works out to 7.83 K/9 and 3.59 BB/9, while his 21.5% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate leave him with an 11.6% K-BB rate. His FIP is 4.16, showing that the ERA has been better than the defense-independent numbers, but the recent form has been substantially stronger than that season-long gap suggests. 

King has been particularly effective over his most recent seven starts, allowing a 1.94 ERA across 41.2 innings with 44 strikeouts. That is 9.50 K/9 during the stretch, a major improvement over his season strikeout rate, and he has limited the damage while working deep into games. The recent strikeout surge is the most important development in his profile because it gives San Diego a much stronger swing-and-miss component than the season-long 7.83 K/9 indicates. 

Gavin Williams has the more impressive strikeout profile. His current line has him at 3.56 ERA with 156 strikeouts over 126.1 innings, which comes to 11.12 K/9. His walk rate is also attractive at roughly 2.7 BB/9, giving him a far stronger strikeout-to-walk combination than King. FanGraphs has Williams at a 3.74 FIP and 3.41 xFIP, while his current 32.3% strikeout rate is elite. The issue from a current-form perspective is the contact quality: Baseball Savant has him allowing a .299 xwOBA and a 47.6% hard-hit rate. 

This is a much closer pitching matchup than the ERA column suggests, but San Diego gets my vote because King's recent form has been outstanding and his last-seven-start strikeout rate has jumped to 9.50 K/9. Williams owns the bigger season-long strikeout advantage, yet King has been doing a better job of converting his recent starts into run prevention. San Diego is the side I would back on the road against Cleveland today.

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