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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami +105 over Pittsburgh

Eury Pérez (RHP – Miami) – 3.63 ERA
Paul Skenes (RHP – Pittsburgh) – 3.98 ERA

6:40 PM EST. Eury Pérez brings the steadier current profile into this matchup. His 3.63 ERA is backed by an xERA in the mid-3.00 range, while his strikeout rate remains excellent at roughly 10 K/9. Pérez has also done a strong job limiting free passes, keeping his BB/9 around the 2.5 range. That combination gives Miami a starter who can miss bats without constantly putting himself into difficult counts. His current command and swing-and-miss combination provide a strong foundation at home.

Paul Skenes remains an elite strikeout arm, but his current form is a long way from his best. He has posted a 6.26 ERA across his last eight starts, with eight walks over his last nine innings highlighting the recent command problems. His xERA has also moved sharply higher during this stretch, while the strikeout-minus-walk profile has deteriorated. The hard contact has become an issue as well, making the current version of Skenes much more vulnerable than his season ERA suggests. Recent analysis has also documented his substantial downturn over this stretch.

The matchup sets up particularly well for Miami because Pérez is bringing the cleaner current command profile while Skenes is fighting his way through long at-bats. Skenes still possesses enormous strikeout upside, but strikeouts become less valuable when walks and hard contact are creating extended innings. Pérez has the ability to keep the Marlins out of those situations and force Pittsburgh to string together quality at-bats against a pitcher who has been far more efficient lately.

Miami is the side we want at home. The Marlins have the more reliable starter based on current form, while Skenes is carrying too many warning signs to justify treating Pittsburgh as the automatic favorite. Pérez's xERA, K/9 and BB/9 provide the stronger overall profile, and Miami's home offense has been swinging the bat well. The value is with the Marlins to hand Skenes another difficult outing and win this game outright.

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