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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Baltimore +130 over Texas

Kyle Bradish (RHP – Baltimore) – 3.79 ERA

Jacob deGrom (RHP – Texas) – 3.98 ERA

7:15 PM EST. Kyle Bradish enters this matchup with the more favorable current profile despite some recent inconsistency. His 3.79 ERA is supported by a 4.06 xERA, while his strikeout-minus-walk percentage sits around 12%, leaving plenty of room for improvement in the underlying results. Bradish has the better overall run-prevention numbers of these two starters right now, and his ability to generate swings and misses gives Baltimore a weapon that can change an inning quickly.

Jacob deGrom has been trending in the wrong direction over the past month. His 6.50 ERA and 1.94 WHIP during that stretch are accompanied by a 4.81 xERA and a modest 12% K-BB rate, showing that the recent struggles aren't simply the product of bad luck. The strikeout ability remains present, but the command and overall effectiveness have not been consistent enough to justify treating deGrom like the dominant pitcher his reputation suggests.

This is where Baltimore becomes an attractive road position. The Orioles are catching deGrom during a stretch where he has been allowing too much traffic and failing to turn his strikeout ability into clean innings. Bradish, meanwhile, has a lower ERA and a slightly better xERA, giving Baltimore the more reliable current pitching profile. The matchup also sets up nicely against a Texas offense that has been vulnerable to right-handed pitching during the recent stretch.

The price is the main attraction. Baltimore doesn't need Bradish to completely shut down Texas; the Orioles simply need their starter to outperform a deGrom who has been struggling with both results and underlying indicators. With Bradish holding the statistical edge and deGrom's recent form creating a significant concern on the other side, Baltimore is the value side on the road. Take the Orioles to pull the upset in Texas.

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