Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Texas +145 over Tampa Bay

Carson Winn (RHP – Texas) – 0.00 ERA 

Shane McClanahan (LHP – Tampa Bay) – 3.09 ERA

12:10 PM EST. We are jumping right back on the Texas train today!One of the most misleading statistics in baseball is a team's win-loss record. Over the course of a 162-game season, countless games are decided by a fortunate bounce, an untimely error, or simple bullpen variance. Tampa Bay's record has created the perception that it's in a different class than Texas, but the gap between these clubs is nowhere near as wide as the standings suggest. The Rangers have played much better baseball than their record indicates, and the betting market continues to undervalue them because of it.

As of this writing, Carson Winn is still an unknown at the major-league level, but that uncertainty is already reflected in the price. Shane McClanahan is a proven left-hander with a 3.09 ERA, strong underlying metrics, and the ability to generate strikeouts at an elite rate. Even so, this wager isn't about fading McClanahan. It's about recognizing that the betting market has attached far too much weight to reputation while discounting the overall value on Texas.

The Rangers remain one of the most undervalued teams in baseball. Their underlying performance has consistently been stronger than their record suggests, and the market continues to price them according to perception instead of true talent. That creates value in spots like this, and we'll gladly take Texas as an underdog against an inflated number.

That's creating value, and we'll continue backing Texas as an underdog whenever the opportunity presents itself. Don't be surprised if you see us call their name often over the remainder of the season. 

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