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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis  +105 over Arizona

Dustin May (RHP – St. Louis) – 4.55 ERA

Brandon Pfaadt (RHP – Arizona) – 3.94 ERA

4:10 PM EST. The betting market is giving Arizona plenty of respect at home, but this looks like a coin flip mound match. Dustin May's 4.55 ERA doesn't tell the entire story, as the hard-throwing right-hander has continued to generate plenty of swings and misses while limiting free passes. The Cardinals have quietly been one of the better road teams in the National League this season, and their lineup has been producing consistently with veterans Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado providing depth from top to bottom. St. Louis also ranks among the league leaders in batting average with runners in scoring position, making it a dangerous club in close games.

Brandon Pfaadt has put together a respectable season with a 3.94 ERA, but he's also been vulnerable against disciplined offenses that force him into deeper counts. The Cardinals fit that profile perfectly. St. Louis has been one of the tougher teams in baseball to strike out, and when they put the ball in play, they create pressure by extending innings. Arizona remains an explosive offensive club, but its pitching staff has been inconsistent at times, and the bullpen has struggled to protect leads throughout stretches of the season. If Pfaadt exits early, that advantage quickly swings toward the visitors.

This feels like one of those spots where the line is shaded because Arizona is playing at home rather than because there's a significant gap between these teams. In reality, the starting pitching matchup is much closer than the odds suggest, and St. Louis has the more experienced lineup in a game that could easily come down to timely hitting. The Cardinals have been profitable in the underdog role this season because they rarely beat themselves, and they're more than capable of grinding out a low-scoring victory. Take St. Louis to go into Arizona, capitalize on the value, and leave with the upset.

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