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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati -1½ +180 over Chicago

Hunter Greene (RHP - Cincinnati) – 24.00 ERA Shota Imanaga (LHP - Chicago) – 4.28 ERA

7:10 PM EST. Greene's season ERA is inflated by one rough return from the injured list, but his premium fastball, elite strikeout ability, and track record suggest a much stronger performance is coming. Cincinnati gets the benefit of home field, a dangerous offense in its own park, and a pitcher whose best baseball is likely just around the corner. Expect Greene to take a significant step forward in his second start back and lead the Reds to a home victory over the Cubs.

Standardbred horseplayers know the pattern well. After a long layoff, a horse comes back with a qualifier, then gets a tightener, and it's often that third effort where you see the horse return to peak form. Baseball pitchers frequently follow a similar path. After spending time on the injured list, the first start is often nothing more than knocking off the rust, regardless of the final line.

Hunter Greene was hit hard in his first start back, but that's exactly why we're interested today. That outing served as his "tightener." The velocity returned, the arm proved healthy, and now he gets the opportunity to settle back into a normal routine. Elite pitchers rarely return from an extended absence and immediately dominate. More often, it takes one outing before the command, timing, and confidence all fall back into place. The betting market tends to overreact to what it saw most recently, and that's exactly where the value lies. Greene is one of the most talented young arms in baseball, and we're willing to forgive one rough outing after a lengthy layoff. Much like the standardbred coming off a qualifier and a tightener, this is the start where we're expecting Hunter Greene to look much more like himself.

Shota Imanaga has put together another solid campaign with a 4.28 ERA, but he draws a difficult assignment against a Cincinnati lineup that has been much more productive at Great American Ball Park than on the road. The Reds continue to rank among the National League leaders in stolen bases, creating constant pressure on opposing pitchers once they reach base, while their lineup features plenty of right-handed power capable of taking advantage of the hitter-friendly dimensions. Cincinnati also owns one of the better home OPS marks in the league, making this a challenging environment for any visiting starter. We are taking them on the reverse run line and letting the chips fall where they may!

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