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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh  +115 over Athletics

9:40 PM EST.  We are jumping right back into bed with the Pirates today! This is the same spot we were at yesterday. The oddsmakers appear to be pricing the Athletics based more on location than on the starting pitching matchup. Mitch Keller (RHP - PIT) enters with a misleading 5.14 ERA, but nearly every underlying metric suggests he's been considerably better than that number indicates. Over 77 innings, Keller owns a 3.89 FIP while allowing just 0.70 home runs per nine innings. His .293 BABIP and low 63.9% strand rate have contributed heavily to the inflated ERA, and those are statistics that tend to normalize over time. While Keller's strikeout rate of 6.78 K/9 isn't eye-popping, he consistently limits damage and gives his club quality innings.

The Athletics counter with Jack Perkins (RHP - ATH), whose surface numbers are difficult to trust despite some intriguing underlying indicators. Perkins owns a 6.25 ERA over 36 innings and has been hit hard whenever he's been asked to work extended innings. His 10.75 K/9 is impressive and his 3.66 FIP suggests better days may be ahead, but a .333 BABIP and poor 56.7% strand rate reveal a pitcher still searching for consistency. More importantly, Perkins has made just two starts all season and has primarily worked in a relief role, creating uncertainty regarding both workload and effectiveness against a lineup seeing him multiple times through the order.

Pittsburgh checks all the boxes of a live underdog. Keller has the far more established track record, superior command of contact, and a skill set supported by much stronger underlying metrics than his ERA suggests. Perkins may eventually develop into a quality starter, but backing an inexperienced arm with limited starting experience against a veteran like Keller is a difficult proposition. When the road team sends the more reliable starter to the mound and is still being offered as an underdog, that's often where the betting value resides. Pittsburgh looks like the right side in a matchup that is much closer to a pick'em than the market implies.

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