Toronto @ Baltimore
Toronto -1½ +140 over Baltimore

BET365     Sportsinteraction

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Toronto -1½ +140 over Baltimore

7:07 PM EST. Trey Yesavage (RHP – TOR) has been electric right out of the gate and profiles as the most dangerous arm on the board today. The strikeout rate jumps off the page, the expected ERA backs it up, and the underlying metrics suggest this is no fluke. His ability to generate whiffs with that splitter—especially when he’s commanding the fastball—creates a tough at-bat every time through the order. This is a legitimate front-line profile, and right now, he’s pitching like it.

On the other side, Brandon Young (RHP – BAL) is exactly the type of pitcher you look to fade in this range. The surface ERA from last year was ugly enough, but the deeper numbers don’t offer much hope either. Young doesn’t miss bats, doesn’t have a true out pitch, and relies heavily on contact management—never a comfortable profile, especially against a lineup that can string together quality at-bats. His recent outing against Detroit looks fine on paper, but it doesn’t change the bigger picture. This is still a back-end arm with very little margin for error.

This sets up as a clear pitching mismatch, and those are the spots where laying the run line makes the most sense. Toronto has the edge on the mound, the more dangerous offense, and the ability to capitalize when inferior pitching is on the hill. At +140, you’re getting paid on a game that doesn’t project to be particularly close if it plays out the way it should.

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Our Pick

Toronto -1½ +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)

Colorado -1½ +190 over San Francisco