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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh -1½ +130 over Chicago

6:40 PM EST. The Cubs finally exploded offensively Wednesday with 10 runs and 14 hits to snap a brutal stretch, but one big offensive game does not suddenly erase what Chicago has been over a much larger sample, which is a team that has struggled badly at the plate for weeks. Prior to that breakout, the Cubs had dropped 10 straight games and owned a miserable .588 OPS while going 3-14 over their previous 17 contests.

Colin Rea (RHP - CHC )takes the mound for Chicago and while his overall profile paints him as a capable innings eater, recent form is much more concerning. Rea has been allowing a ton of hard contact lately and current Pirates hitters own an aggregate OPS around .950 against him. That’s not noise. Pittsburgh sees him well and has consistently squared him up.

Meanwhile, this is exactly the type of bounce-back spot where Paul Skenes (RHP - PIT) becomes attractive from a pricing standpoint. Skenes is coming off back-to-back shaky outings by his standards, which naturally cools market enthusiasm a bit. That creates value because the underlying perception shifts quickly anytime an ace has a couple rough starts. The reality is that Skenes remains one of the most dominant young arms in baseball and now gets a home start against a lineup that, outside of one outlier game, has been ice cold for weeks.

The run line also makes sense here because when Pittsburgh wins behind Skenes, separation often follows. If Rea continues allowing barrels and hard contact, the Pirates have a strong chance to put up crooked numbers against a Cubs bullpen that has also been overworked during this recent stretch.

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