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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Texas -1½ +165 over Arizona

8:05 PM EST. Michael Soroka (RHP, Arizona) has allowed an alarming 12 earned runs in just two road starts this season, and today he walks into another difficult spot against a Texas lineup that is due to break out offensively at home. The Rangers are averaging only 2.8 runs per game at Globe Life Field while hitting just .215 with a weak .619 OPS and 77 wRC+, which is exactly why this price remains attractive. Those ugly offensive numbers help suppress the market and create value opportunities when the matchup strongly favors Texas.

Soroka’s biggest problem remains his inability to keep runners off base and neutralize left-handed hitters. His ugly 1.43 WHIP is being driven by constant traffic and hard contact, while lefties are torching him for a .337 batting average and .906 OPS. The underlying profile still looks shaky. Even the 2026 Baseball Forecaster points out that while the strikeout trend may look appealing on the surface, his swing-and-miss stuff remains average and unsustainable. He still profiles more as shaky rotation depth than a trustworthy starter.

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, Texas) enters this game in fantastic form. The veteran right-hander has delivered two straight pure quality starts, allowing just one earned run over his last 15 innings pitched. His command has been outstanding, his ground-ball profile remains elite, and he continues to dominate right-handed hitters, limiting them to a .203 batting average and .570 OPS.

Arizona has also struggled badly against right-handed pitching this season, hitting just .221 with a .667 OPS in that split. That plays directly into Eovaldi’s strengths. Across 43 career starts at Globe Life Field, Eovaldi is 19-7 with a 3.25 ERA and a sparkling 1.00 WHIP over 244 innings.

This shapes up as a game where Texas controls the pace from the mound, forces Arizona into its bullpen early, and finally cashes in enough offensively to create late separation.

The Rangers on the run line offer the best value.

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