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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +110 over Arizona

9:40 PM EST. This is a fade on Eduardo Rodríguez (LHP – ARI). The ERA says 3.03. The rest says something very different. His expected ERA is 5.15, the strikeout-to-walk numbers are weak (22 K, 16 BB in 32.1 innings and the swing-and-miss rate is barely above 6%. That’s not sustainable. He’s been getting by on sequencing and an inflated strand rate, and that tends to correct quickly.

Rodríguez isn’t missing bats, which means traffic. When you’re constantly pitching with runners on, one mistake turns into multiple runs. A left shoulder inflammation cost him three weeks in the first half of last year. Outside of that, he re-established durability but not a rosterable skill set: K-BB% remains locked in mediocrity, sub-indicators don't offer hope for meaningful recovery. Five-year scan of disasters highlights the start-to-start peril of betting on him: why would you do that to yourself?

On the other side, Bubba Chandler (RHP – PIT) brings legitimate upside. The stuff is there — good command, plus secondary pitches, and the type of arm that can take a step forward quickly. Young pitchers with this kind of profile don’t stay quiet for long. Pittsburgh is playing well and comes in with momentum, while Arizona is going the other way. At plus money, this is the prudent choice.

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