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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland -1½ +135 over Athletics

4:05 PM EST. We're going right back to the reverse run line here because Cleveland has the more stable arm, the better current form, and they’re facing a pitcher whose skills have been trending the wrong way for quite some time.

Parker Messick (LHP - CLE) has quietly been one of the more reliable young arms in the rotation. The surface numbers are strong, but the underlying metrics are even better — a 2.87 xERA, 0.88 WHIP, and a very healthy 20% K-BB rate over 36.1 innings. That’s the profile of a pitcher who is commanding the zone, limiting traffic, and forcing hitters to earn everything.

He’s also a groundball-oriented arm with a five-pitch arsenal, highlighted by two distinct breaking balls that give hitters different looks. The rest of the package might be considered fringe from a pure scouting standpoint, but when the command is there — and it has been — the results follow. He posted a 19% K-BB rate in his first go-around and has carried that efficiency into this season.

Oakland’s numbers against lefties at home — .244 batting average and a 99 wRC+ — are essentially league average. That’s not a strength, and it’s certainly not the type of split that scares you off backing a pitcher who is throwing strikes and keeping the ball on the ground.

On the other side, Aaron Civale (RHP - OAK) looks like a pitcher living on reputation more than performance right now. He opened the season on the injured list with a hamstring issue, bounced between teams last year, and finished the season in the bullpen. More concerning is the steady erosion in his skills — an 11% K-BB rate, declining strikeout percentage, and a swinging-strike rate that continues to move in the wrong direction.

That’s not a temporary dip — that’s a trend.

Yes, the track record might buy him a few more opportunities, but the days of being a dependable starter appear to be behind him. When a pitcher is missing fewer bats and allowing more contact, especially against a disciplined lineup, the margin for error becomes razor thin.

Cleveland is in a strong position to capitalize. They’re getting quality innings from the starter, limiting baserunners, and putting pressure on opposing staffs. In a park where runs can come in bunches, that combination often leads to multi-run victories — exactly what we’re targeting with the -1½.

We’re taking a plus number on the team with the better arm, the steadier profile, and the higher probability of creating distance.

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