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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Houston -1½ +125 over Athletics

4:10 PM EST. Jacob Lopez has some intriguing secondary stuff, but the profile remains fragile. He’s a soft-tossing lefty who relies heavily on deception and off-speed movement, and that approach leaves little margin for error when the command wavers. We saw exactly that in his first start this season, where he issued five walks and failed to record a single strikeout. That’s a dangerous combination against any lineup, let alone one capable of capitalizing on free baserunners.

There are also durability concerns that cannot be ignored. Lopez finished last season with a flexor strain after a late collapse in his final outing, and pitchers coming off that type of arm issue often struggle to find consistency early. His elevated fly-ball tendencies and periodic control lapses have already limited his ceiling, and when the walks pile up, the risk of a crooked number rises quickly.

On the other side, Lance McCullers Jr. looked sharp in his season debut against Boston, working seven innings of one-run ball while striking out nine. The significance of that outing goes beyond the box score. After logging just 55.1 innings since his 2023 flexor tendon surgery, the key question surrounding McCullers has always been health and effectiveness. That first start answered both in convincing fashion.

This matchup also tilts heavily in his favor from a statistical standpoint. The Athletics have been extremely vulnerable against right-handed pitching, striking out at a league-high 32.1% rate while producing a weak .610 OPS across their early-season sample. That’s exactly the type of lineup a strikeout-oriented pitcher can dominate, particularly one regaining confidence and rhythm after a long layoff.

The separation here is clear. Houston sends the more reliable arm to the mound against a lineup prone to swing-and-miss, while Oakland counters with a pitcher still battling control issues and lingering health questions. That combination creates a strong path to a multi-run victory.

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