Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +103 BET365  -105 Sportsinteraction  -105 888Sport  -105

Detroit +103 over Tampa Bay

6:50 PM EST. The Tigers have to like what they’ve seen from Jack Flaherty (RHP - DET), as he is playing well in his new digs after a solid spring training that saw his fastball velo tick up while he missed bats at a high rate with his secondary pitches (Curve = 63%, slider = 40%, change = 33%, four-seamer = 26%). That spring success has transferred to the regular season, as Flaherty has a gorgeous 30:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 24.1 innings. Dude has been a workhorse thus far as well, going at least 6.0 IP in each of his four turns. Flaherty had struggled with injuries over the years, but his 11.1 K/9 is not a fluke, as he posted a double-digit strikeout rate in 2020. Flaherty “bet on himself” when he signed a 1-year $14-million deal with Detroit, but if he keeps up this pace, he’s going to get a monster deal in the offseason.

The Rays are going with an “opener” today, as Shawn Armstrong (RHP - TB) will make his third start in his ninth appearance. We’re not going to focus much attention on the Rays opener here, as he’s only likely to go two innings at most. Instead, we are going to shine a light on former Tiger Tyler Anderson (LHP - TB), who is expected to relieve Armstrong in a “stopper” role. Armstrong had gotten the nod in four prior turns and while he posts an impressive 1.42 surface ERA, his xERA is a much more bloated 5.17. Further, Armstrong has seen a significant dip in his strikeout rate from 7.60 K/9 in 2023 to just 4.97 K/9 so far in 2024. It’s still early, but that drop in K’s and a very fortunate strand rate of 96% and an equally lucky Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) suggest that a correction to the bad could be coming to that ERA and the rest of Anderson’s surface stats.

Sherwood

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