Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +122 BET365   +120 Sportsinteraction   +120 888Sport  +120

Kansas City +122 over Baltimore

7:40 PM EST. Alec Marsh (RHP - KC) is not the target here, but we’ll note that he brings a serviceable 4.32 ERA that is backed by an xERA of 3.90. He also sports a 1.08 WHIP through 16.2 innings, as he’s issued just three walks so far. The strikeouts aren’t there yet here in 2024, but Marsh has proven he can flame guys at the big league level in the past, so when the Ks do come, his numbers, which are already pretty good, are going to get even better.

We are here to fade Dean Kremer (RHP - BAL), who took this loss last Saturday after surrendering eight runs on 10 hits and a walk over four innings while striking out only three. Kremer has been prone to giving up the long ball this season, and he did so against the Brewers with Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers going yard, with the latter putting the Crew in the lead for good.

The propensity to give up home runs is not new for Kremer, as he posted a 1.41 HR/9 homerun rate in 2023. As for 2024, his 4.96 surface ERA is actually better than his bloated 6.40 xERA, while his swing-and-miss rate is down from 10.2% last year to a puny 8.8% thus far. While Kremer has only issued two walks in 16.1 innings thus far, the best walk rate of his career was 2.44 BB/9, and he posted a mark of 2.87 BB/9 in 2023, so a correction to the mean could be coming. Even if it doesn’t, Kremer is not worthy of being favored in this range on the road.

Sherwood

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