Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -1½ +144 BET365 -1½ +140 Sportsinteraction -1½ +140 888Sport -1½ +140

Milwaukee -1½ +144 over St. Louis

8:15 PM EST. Freddy Peralta (RHP - MIL) is in mid-season form, as he’s coming off an 11-strikeout performance across six innings of one-run ball versus the Orioles last Friday night. Peralta was dominant in that start, and he brings a sparkling xERA of 2.52 into this start with an even more impressive 0.68 WHIP. His swing-and-miss rate is at its usual elite level of 14.4%, which just so happens to be where it was in 2023. Peralta is tied for second in the bigs with 26 punchouts in 17.2 innings, and he’s walked just two. When he’s on, Peralta is one of the best in the game, and right now, he looks to be all the way “on”.

In his last turn last Saturday, Kyle Gibson (RHP - STL) took the loss in Arizona, where he allowed four runs on six hits and three walks while striking out two batters over six innings. Gibson is now 1-2 in his new home in St. Louis, but perhaps more concerning are the pedestrian numbers he’s posted so far with a 6.16 ERA that is actually better than his inflated xERA of 7.96. Furthermore, Gibson has lost something, as his strikeout rate is down, as is his swing-and-miss rate. Across 19 innings, Gibson has just 11 strikeouts to six walks for a WHIP of 1.21. Dude is 36, and there are many red flags in Gibson’s profile. He’s a pitcher we are going to continue to target as one that needs to be faded.

Sherwood

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