Posted at 12:50 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -1½ 130 BET365 -1½ +130 Sportsinteraction -1½ +130  888Sport -1½ +135

San Diego -1½ +130 over Milwaukee

7:40 PM EST. Dylan Cease (RHP - SD) lost a mph-plus off his fastball last year and it made him just a skosh more hittable. Really, that was the only significant skills change between this and his ace-like 2022, as xERA and skills validate. It's obvious that 2022 is the outlier stat-wise (thanks, hit%/strand%) and he'll never be a WHIP monster, but if the heater cooperates, a return to 2022-23 xERA is attainable. In 16 innings this year, Cease has 20 K’s against six walks with a WHIP of 0.84. Dude is really dealing it for a San Diego team that we may have grossly underestimated before the season began and that is playing great ball. We also get to fade one of the worst starters in the game here.  

Wade Miley (LHP - MIL) did not factor into the decision in Wednesday's win over the Reds, allowing one run on one hit and two walks over four innings. Wade Miley is 37 years old. In that aforementioned win over Cinci last week, he didn’t strike out even one batter. Zero strikeouts in an era where strikeouts are plentiful even for average pitchers. Last year Miley landed on the IL twice (lat, shoulder), yet somehow posted his third straight sub-3.40 ERA despite third straight year of weak skills. Last year’s luck driven campaign was held together with extreme hit and strand rate fortune, as his swing and miss rate sunk to career lows. Wade Miley is the epitome of several blowups waiting to happen. San Diego -125 is great value but we don’t spot juice in baseball games so our play is San Diego on the run-line. 

Sherwood

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