Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -102   BET365 -105 Sportsinteraction -105  888Sport  -105

Arizona -102 over St. Louis

8:10 PM EST. The Cardinals took game one of this series, hanging a crooked number on the Diamondbacks in a 9-6 win last night. We backed the Snakes' starting pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt, to pick up the win in that contest, and while we ripped up that ticket, we are going to be “sticking with it” here by coming right back on the D-Backs, who failed to capitalize on their opportunities last night. Arizona jumped on Cards’ starter Steven Matz for eight hits and four runs, but they could have had more before their bats were silenced by a St. Louis bullpen that used up four arms to close out the game.

What that means for Kyle Gibson (RHP - STL) is that his leash may be a bit longer because Matz only went 4.2 innings last night. So even if Gibson struggles, Oliver Marmol may be inclined to stick with him because he already used quality bullpen arms, including Giovanny Gallegos, to bail out his starter, Matz, in the opener. As for Gibson, he has struggled, including last time out when the 2-12 Diamondbacks jumped all over him to the tune of seven earned runs on seven hits over six innings pitched. We’ll note that Gibson gave up six earned runs in the first inning, and Marmol let him sit in it. While it’s only two starts, Gibson's surface numbers are awful, and his underlying numbers support that with his xERA being higher than his already bloated ERA of 6.23. Furthermore, Gibson has a lucky .200 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) and a very weak swing-and-miss rate of 8.5%.

Meanwhile, Ryne Nelson (RHP - ARI) is 0-2, but he is coming off a tough-luck loss against the Braves last Sunday in which he gave up three earned runs in five innings while striking out seven. There is no sugarcoating Nelson’s terrible season opener versus the Yankees, but the fact that he rebounded against another quality outfit in the Braves is promising. We can’t guarantee that Nelson will continue to improve today, but he does take a big step down in competition, and regardless, he and the defending National League champs cannot be an underdog at home to Gibson and the Red Birds.

Sherwood

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