Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 1:45 PM EST and are subject to change.
Baltimore +140 over Boston
6:10 PM EST, Game 2 of the Doubleheader and at the time of this writing it appeared as though the Red Sox were in position to win Game 1. Regardless, Boston is sending out a first time starter to make his MLB debut and that’s a massively risky proposition at a price like this.
Josh Winckowski (RHP - BOS) burst onto the prospect scene over the last two seasons and now finds himself with this spot start against the Orioles. Winckowski became a legitimate prospect in 2021 by increasing his velocity and improving his already-solid command and control. He pitches aggressively with a 92-96 mph four-seam fastball that he uses up in the zone. He also mixes in a two-seamer that induces a high amount of groundballs. His other offerings consist of a slider with cutter action and a middling split-change. Winckowski is all about throwing strikes, as evidenced by his low walk rate. His strikeout rate has increased as he’s learned to sequence better and use his four-seamer as his go-to pitch. Despite the accolades, he still may end up in the bullpen. His change-up hasn’t improved much and his slider can be erratic in its shape and velocity. Winckowski has simply not been as effective against left-handed hitters. There are so many red flags in his profile with the main one being he throws his fastball too often because he lacks confidence in his secondaries.
He’ll make this one start and figures to return to the minors shortly thereafter. Winckowski was drafted in the 15th round in 2016 by the Blue Jays. He was later sent to the Mets in early 2021 before getting shipped to the Red Sox a month later prior to the 2021 campaign. Blue Jays and Mets said pass and Mets said pass very recently.
Denyi Reyes (RHP - BAL) is also in the majors for the first time after the Orioles purchased his contract. The 6’4”, 255-pound 25-year-old was originally in the Red Sox organization from 2015 thru 2021 before inking a minor league deal with Baltimore in November 2021. His best attribute is his exceptional control. He’s also gotten his feet wet with a couple of innings already, both in relief. We have no idea which or both of these two first-time starters will get whacked or succeed but we do know that one of them cannot be priced like he’s Shane Bieber. We must play the value here and that lies with the Orioles.
Baltimore (GM 2) +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)