N.Y. Yankees @ Chicago
Chicago +110 over N.Y. Yankees

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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

Chicago +110 over N.Y. Yankees

2:10 PM EST. We presented a strategy to you a few days ago, that being to ride a team for a specified amount of time. Unfortunately we came off that strategy yesterday when both the Yanks (we were fading them) and the Nats (we were getting behind them) cashed in. We aborted on Kansas City also (they lost). We have stated before that one of the most critical strategies in sports betting is to “stick with it”. That can be difficult to do but we’re getting back on it here and we are not coming off of it until we see how it plays out in its entirety. Thus, we’re back on the horse today. We’re sticking with Cincinnati, Kansas City and fading the Yanks. The Nats were also on our list but their specified amount of games would’ve ended today so we’ll just leave them out.

Our fade on the Yanks started on May 10 and will last a total of 29 games. It’ll end after a three game set in Minnesota on June 9th at which time we will reassess and decide if we’ll continue or abort. Thus far, we are stuck 8 units fading the Yanks but we have to stick with it, as we pegged the Yankees hot start as being unsustainable.

Here are today’s starters:

Nestor Cortes (LHP - NYY) entered the 2022 season as an end-rotation starter but he’s delivered a lot more value than that (1.41 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 32 IP). His skills have been firmly elite (36% K%, 4% BB%, 32% K-BB%) but it might be time to pump the brakes on Cortes continuing to strikeout batters at this level (42 K’s in 32 innings) since his 11% swing & miss rate is more pedestrian than impactful. An 88% strand rate and 5% hr/f are driving his surface stats. There's regression coming.

Regression is also coming for Michael Kopech (RHP - CWS). Kopech has started six games and has zero wins and zero losses with a 0.93 ERA. That’s a lot of zeros. In 29 innings, he has struck out 30 batters with 13 walks issued. Last season, Kopech’s transition to the rotation was stalled by a mid-season hamstring injury. The long term plan is to have him start and so far it looks like the right move. His minor-league BB% rates are somewhat concerning, as is his 54% fly-ball rate against the Yankees but the ingredients are there for this former top prospect to break out.

Our Pick

Chicago +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto