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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

Kansas City +125 over Colorado

3:10 PM EST. We locked in on Kansas City on May 10 and we are riding the Royals up until May 24th when they conclude a two-game set in Arizona.

As a team that puts the ball in play more than most, the Royals are a paltry 11-20. When you put the ball in play good things will happen. We’re betting on it. We have gone 2-2 with the Royals since this target began and we’ll continue here.

Here are today's starters:

Daniel Lynch (LHP - KC) is most certainly under the radar given the struggles he had in 2021 and his mediocre stats early in 2022 (4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 24 IP). A deeper look reveals several reasons for optimism, including plenty of whiffs (13.0% swing & miss rate), first-pitch strikes (64%), and volume of strikes (33% ball%). Of course this is Coors, a park that takes no prisoners so anything is possible today.

Austin Gomber (LHP - COL) had a 4.53 ERA in 2021. He has a 4.36 ERA this year. A 10.3% swing and miss rate does not support his 29 K’s in 33 innings. Austin Gomber has been both very good and very poor in spurts over the past couple years. He’s just as likely to throw a gem as he is to have a rough outing but what stands out is that he hasn’t been durable. The more innings he pitches, the worse he gets.