Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
Boston +100 over Texas
3:10 PM EST. The Red Sox would like to stay here for a few more games after their bats came alive ever since they arrived on Friday. In two games, the Bosox have outscored the Rangers 18-4 and once again they’re an underdog today. We see no reason to come off them.
Austin Davis (LHP - BOS) is a reliever turned starter for today but don’t expect him to go more than two innings, as he’s appeared in 14 games, none as a starter and has pitched a total of 13 innings. He’s not the proverbial cherry.
The cherry is that Martin Perez (LHP - TEX) will go for Texas. Perez has put up solid numbers thus far. He has a sweet ERA of 2.10 (not a typo) after six starts but a late bloomer he is not. His current xERA is 4.14. The progress is driven by a career best 21% K%. However, this is not backed by a corresponding increase in swings and misses and there is no clear change in pitch usage or whiff rates to explain the increase. Home runs against have been slightly suppressed, leading to that xERA-ERA gap. Though the changes in K% and BB% support improved xWHIP, the combination leads only to a K-minus-BB that is just slightly below average. There is nothing here that points to him as having turned a corner, so his value remains only as a significant dog and not as the favorite.
Boston +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)