Chicago @ Arizona
Chicago +105 over Arizona

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Odds posted at 3:30 PM EST and are subject to change.

Chicago +105 over Arizona

9:40 PM EST. Seriously, who is Zach Davies (RHP - ARI) to be favored in this range against anyone, let alone his former running mates? Davies has long been a scrub starter. He spent 2021 with the Cubbies before signing a one-year $1.7 million deal in the desert. Prior to that, Davies was in San Diego for a year and Milwaukee for five. He comes in with a nifty 3.34 ERA after 30 frames but we'll just remind you that you're always rolling the dice when you get behind him.

Drew Smyly (LHP - CHC) has held his own since moving from the World Series champion Braves to the Cubs this summer. Smyly has seen a sharp increase in his groundball rate to an elite 51.3%. That figures to serve him well moving forward. Smyly’s hard hit balls are also way down from 35.1% in 2021 to just 25% this season. Those hard hits have not been replaced by medium hit balls either, as they, too, are down (2%). That means Smyly’s soft hit ball rate is up to 27.6%, which is 12% higher than last year. As a lefty, Smyly also presents a challenge for the Arizona bats, which have hit just .209 against lefties this season. The D-Backs are over .500 at 17-15, which might be the biggest surprise after the first five weeks of the season. Regression is looming.


Our Pick

Chicago +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

Arizona +120 over Chicago
Detroit +170 over Cleveland
Miami +125 over Atlanta
Cincinnati +260 over Toronto
Kansas City +125 over Minnesota