Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Cincinnati +115 over Pittsburgh

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Odds posted at 11:45 AM EST and are subject to change.

Cincinnati +120 over Pittsburgh

6:35 PM EST. Cincinnati was 6-20 on May 10th when we started getting behind them and we’ll be backing them daily until May 26 when they close out a four-game set vs the Cubs. Thus far, we have gone 1-1 with the Reds with a net profit of 1.80 units. They figure to be an underdog every day and today is no different, as they head to Pittsburgh for three games. We’ll be on Cinci in all three games.

Here is the pitching matchup:

In need of a starter on April 30, the Reds recalled Connor Overton (RHP - CIN) from Triple-A. Overton appeared in nine games with the Pirates and Blue Jays in 2021 before inking a deal with Cincinnati in November 2021. The Reds are his sixth organization and his prospect profile has increased in the past two years. He formerly was a 15th round draft pick in 2014 by the Marlins and generally threw in the low-90s. After mechanical adjustments and additional strength, Overton now pumps his fastball into the 93-96 mph range and has a wide variety of secondary offerings at his disposal. He has a nifty slider, slow curveball, cutter and change-up that features late fade and drop. He gives hitters a lot of different looks and velocities.

In two starts since his recall, he has thrown 11 innings, walked two batters while striking out 7. He has a ERA/xERA split of 2.53/3.64 with a 47% groundball rate, however, his swing and miss rate is just 6.5%.

Jeff Brubaker (RHP - PIT) has been hit and miss for two years. He’ll throw a gem one game and get lit up the next. There are skills in spades but no consistency. He’ll go out there and mow down hitters and then suddenly, they’ll be a barrage of walks, line drives, and HRs. In 25 frames this year, Brubaker has struck out 20 batters but he’s walked 14. He also has a shaky 1.42 WHIP, a 5.68 ERA and a shaky 4.64 xERA. We wouldn’t be surprised if he threw a no-hitter or got knocked out in the third innings. He’s both good and stable and weak and erratic. Hopefully he’s the latter today.

Our Pick

Cincinnati +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto