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Cincinnati +165 over Milwaukee

6:40 PM EST. Back before the season started, we hinted at a new strategy that we’re going to employ this year. Now that the season is six weeks old and things are starting to shake out, we’re going to put it to the test starting today. We’re going to be targeting teams to either fade or get behind and we’re going to play those teams every day for a specified amount of time, whether it’s one week (minimum) or 4 weeks (there is no maximum). We’ll assess that team after the allotted time and decide whether to abort or continue based on value, performance and other factors.

With baseball being a game of streaks, as well as peaks and valleys, we’re going to try and establish teams in line for regression or improvement. Of course we’ll have other games too, like always but we’ll definitely be targeting teams to fade or get behind and today we’ll start off with the Reds, a team we’re going to get behind.

This is not a Cincinnati Reds futility story. No, you’ve read plenty about Cincinnati’s 6-23 start. We’re not here to tell you about the chances they will surpass the depths of the 1962 Mets or the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. We are often advocating for poorly performing teams and there's a good reason. The performance of the team drives so many eyes away from them that the value on them becomes tremendous.

If Cincinnati were to repeat their first 29 games, that means they would be 12-46 after 58 games. That’s with guys like Tyler Stephenson, a young catcher who produced in 2021. He’s off to a monster start, slashing .283/.382/.522, supplementing his batting average with power by barreling more than twice as many balls while maintaining his control of the strike zone.

Then there’s the underrated Colin Moran. Moran launched two home runs against the Pirates last weekend, his previous employer. Reds manager said, “He started the season not playing a lot and has just stayed ready, works super hard and quiet. We know he can hit. So to do it right there against his old team, it was a great day.” You may think, “so what?” The two home runs give him…two on the season, and a slash line of .208/.274/.340. Well, this is where we must consider the context of the Cincinnati Reds.

Moran can hit, Bell is not exaggerating there. Moran’s line over his four full seasons in Pittsburgh from 2018-2021 is a respectable .269/.331/.419. That’s a 101 OPS+. It’s early, but Joey Votto is slashing .122/.278/.135 after cheating baseball immortality, is currently on the COVID-19 IL but he’ll be back real soon and he’ll be better.

Mike Moustakas is checking in at .238/.310/.333, with an OPS+ of 80, which is not much better than his injury-riddled production in 2021. Moustakas is 33, and already missed time in 2022 with a bicep injury. Should he recover, that’s more good news for the Reds. We’re not going to go through the entire team but this is not a horrible team. They figure to be competitive and now that they’re feeling a bit better about things, we’re going to play Cincinnati every single day for the next two weeks and the next 15 days and trust they’ll go something like 9-6 or 8-7 and if that come to fruition, we’ll be looking at significant profits.