Today's Free Picks for
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Oakland +155 over Minnesota
8:10 PM EST. There are a few joints that have Cole Irvin listed as today’s starter for Oakland but the reports we receive have Irvin on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder soreness. It goes on to say that he will miss an undetermined length of time. Enter Zach Logue (LHP - OAK) to make his first major league start after appearing in one inning of relief.
The Athletics promoted the 25-year-old Logue to the majors for the first time in his career. Acquired from the Blue Jays in March 2022, Logue has spent the majority of his career as a starter. He is a short, control-oriented pitcher who led the Blue Jays organization in strikeouts in his breakout season in 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A. He increased his strikeout rate by upping his velocity to the 90-95 mph range and adding a hard cutter/slider to his mix. All of his pitches are difficult to elevate and he keeps the ball in the yard. Logue has proven difficult for right-handed hitters to make hard contact against. He isn’t overpowering by any means, but he can command his fastball extremely well. He is savvy enough to adequately sequence his fastball, slider and improved changeup. For his career, he has a 3.46 ERA, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 but just know that when MoneyBall wants you, it’s a very good sign. There is also a chance that somebody else starts but we do not care. This is an “action” wager based on value.
Despite the A’s struggles as of late, the Twins still do not deserve to be priced in this range. Josh Winder For one, Josh Winder (RHP - MIN) has started one game in his brief career while working out of the pen is three others. Now he’s in the -180 range with 16 MLB innings under his belt? They haven’t been dominant innings either.
Winder was an under-slot seventh rounder out of VMI in 2018. He didn’t exactly light up the Southern Conference his junior year, but a velocity jump at instructs in 2020 put him at the forefront of a Twins system that was deep in pitching. He followed that up with a dominant Double-A stint in 2021, but went down with a shoulder impingement shortly after his promotion to St. Paul. He looked healthy in March, flashing his power breaking stuff in three Florida starts and making the expanded roster out of the bullpen.
Winder is a sturdy-framed righty with good arm speed and three potential above-average pitches. Key word is potential. He’s not there yet. His fastball velocity is around average, sitting higher in short bursts, and the pitch gets its fair share of ground balls due to the plane from his high slot.
Winder has 12 K’s with four walks issued in 16 innings. His strand rate is an unsustainable 88.2% and his first-pitch strike rate is a below average 54%. All of this is in a small sample size. His spot start (6 IP, 7 K, 1 BB, 0 ER) was great, but with Sonny Gray coming off the IL, his rotation spot is not secure. That adds a bit of pressure on him. As a long reliever, he posted 4.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 10 relief innings but no matter how you break it down, he cannot be priced in this range.
Oakland +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)