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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

Pittsburgh +160 over San Diego

1:35 PM EST. Joe Musgrove is 3-0 and sports a 2.16 ERA after four starts. Included is 25 K’s and just two walks issued in 25 innings. Musgrove is legit, we’re not going to suggest otherwise so this wager is not about fading him. It’s about taking an underpriced team, the Pirates, that are playing well and also getting behind an undervalued starter.

Mitch Keller’s (RHP - PIT) early results have been rough, with an ERA that sits at 6.62 through four starts. Now add in the fact that he’s playing for a historically beleaguered team, and it creates a massive overlay in a market that mostly doesn’t have the patience or diligence to dig deeper. Mitch Keller is throwing two mph harder, though, and he’s getting more chases than he has since debuting back in 2018. He’s also getting them with a kitchen sink approach, distributing his four-seamer, slider, curveball, and changeup pretty evenly. He hasn’t done that with this kind of velocity before, potentially giving him a unique profile that could help float him to better performances. We have no idea if he or the Pirates will thrive today but we can spot an opportunity. If Keller loses here, we’ll be back for more.