L.A. Angels @ Chicago
L.A. Angels +108 over Chicago

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Posted at 3:15 PM EST.

L.A. Angels +108 over Chicago

4:05 PM EST. Noah Syndergaard was scratched last night in favor of Jimmy Herget but it would matter not, as the Angels would belt out 13 hits en route to a 5-1 victory. A flattering score it was to the South Side, as they would muster 3 lousy hits.

Yesterday’s starters featured a rookie vs an ace (Luis Giolito) and it didn’t matter. Today’s game features two beatable starters so it should matter even less. What we know for sure is that the Angels have some serious swag going on while the South Side have some anti-swag going on. The Ange;s are seeing beach balls at the plate while the White Sox are seeing BB gun pellets.

As for the starters, in case you might be interested, it’ll be Jose Suarez (LHP - LAA) vs Vince Velasquez (RHP - CHW). Suarez has started three games covering 13 innings. He has walked 11 batters while striking out 13. That’s not great. Throw in his xERA of 5.98 and perhaps some money will come in on the South Side, which would allow us to take back a tag on the Halos. Last year, Suarez was excellent in relief during the 1st half, but shakier as starter in the 2nd. Upon his move to the rotation, strand rate regression brought his surface stats more in line with xERA/xWHIP, while K-BB% drop off rendered his skills mediocre. His change-up is his best weapon (20% swing & miss, 50% grounders) but without plus offering to pair it with, he's just a back-end starter.

We used to write about Velasquez’s maddening inconsistency. His dominant start/disaster start split tells us he's now just consistently bad. He’s constantly surrendering too many fly-balls (and homers), which in tandem with his brutal BB% led to an August DFA (Designated for Assignment) last year. His issues persisted in four September starts with the Friars. This is a bad profile with seven walks already this year in 12 frames, a 49% first-pitch strike rate, a 32% groundball rate and a 9.2% swing and miss rate.

Our Pick

L.A. Angels +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto