Chicago @ Milwaukee
Milwaukee -1½ +125 over Chicago

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Posted at 3:15 PM EST.

Milwaukee -1½ +125 over Chicago

7:10 PM EST. The Crew have woken up from their early season coma. They have now won eight of 10 and sit at 14-7 while the Cubs have been put to sleep after their hot start. Last night, Chicago got walloped and we'll trust they’ll be more of the same here.

Justin Steele (LHP - CHC) has started four games covering a mere 15 innings. Over that span he has an ugly BB/K split of 10/12 with an alarming 1.73 WHIP, a 49% first pitch strike rate and 8% swing & miss rate. Should we be surprised? Steele went 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA in 57 innings last year. He was solid in his early-season relief role prior to a May hamstring strain, but when he returned as starter, skills nosedived. He’ll be back in the pen very soon but regardless, he has virtually no shot of success here against the hot and intimidating bats of the Brewers. This is a fragile starter to begin with.

Then there’s Eric Lauer (LHP - MIL). His last three starts: 16.1 innings pitched, 2.20 ERA, and a 34.3 K%. Before we dive into Eric Lauer’s overall numbers for the season we need to discuss his most recent start against the Philadelphia Phillies. He twirled six brilliant innings allowing zero earned runs while striking out 13 hitters. Yes, 13. Yes, Eric Lauer. He had 17 whiffs overall with 11 of them coming from his four-seam fastball. He would also finish with a 36% Called Strikes & Whiff Rate. An impressive number.

Overall, Lauer’s 2.20 ERA this year comes with a 2.59 xERA, 28.4 K-BB%, and an 11.3% swing and miss rate. He has opened up the season leaning on his breaking balls more by dropping his four-seam rate by nearly 10 points. Not only is the pitch mix change helping but he has also increased his four-seam velocity for the third season in a row.There are a lot of changes happening with Lauer here and while it is definitely early, he is a pitcher who we can still buy low on and that’s precisely what we’re doing.

Our Pick

Milwaukee -1½ +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto