Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
Houston +109 at Texas
8:05 PM EST. We’re coming right back on the Rangers after the Astronauts won in easy fashion last night by a score of 5-1. Easy money as a small favorite. Now the Astros are a small and very enticing favorite again. Big warning sign. If you look at last night’s box score, you’ll see Jake Odorizzi going six full innings and allowing just one hit. What you won’t see is that of the 20 batters he faced, 12 of them hit them deep but just missed. Put that in your pocket for the next time Odorizzi makes an appearance. Texas was close to hitting six jacks last night so we will not be deterred.
Cristian Javier (RHP - HOU) is another talented arm that didn't start the season in the Astros rotation. His stuff was dominant in 2021, especially in the second half (14.5% swing & miss rate) and he’s been good this year but he has not started a game. He’s appeared in three games, none as a starter and has tossed just eight innings. That likely means he’s not going past three innings.
Glenn Otto (RHP - TEX) replaced the injured Jon Gray in the rotation. The Rangers promoted Otto from Triple-A where he did not allow an earned run in his first two starts covering seven innings. In his one start for Texas this season, he was brilliant with five K’s in five innings, a 2.27 xERA and a off-the-charts 20% swing and miss rate.
Otto started six games with Texas in 2021 and got hit hard, posting a 9.26 ERA, though with a 10.8 K/9. The tall and strong righty saw his prospect status rise by adding more consistency to his slot/release point, as well as including a new slider to his potent arsenal. He throws lots of strikes with all four of his offerings. He establishes the plate with a 90-94 mph fastball, above average curveball, tight slider and a change-up. Both breaking balls come at hitters with similar velocities with the curve having more bend. While the change-up can be too firm and exhibits inconsistent fade, it can be effective at times. Despite the strong build, Otto can lose stamina in the middle innings. This is a solid prospect very worthy of getting behind.
Texas +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)