Pittsburgh @ Chicago
Pittsburgh +138 over Chicago

BET365 +135 SportInteraction +135 Pinnacle +138

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

Pittsburgh +138 over Chicago

2:20 PM EST. Kudos to the Cubs for scoring three touchdowns yesterday but all that does is bring attention to them and increase their stock value today. We now get to take back a significant price against both the Cubs and their below replacement level starter.

Justin Steele (LHP - CHC) is 1-1 after three starts covering 12 innings, which equates to four innings per start. He’s walked six batters and struck out 10 but his very weak 6% swing and miss rate in no way supports 10 K’s. Steele’s xERA last start was 9.49. Last year in a bigger sample size, Steele wasn’t much better. He was solid in his early-season relief role prior to a May hamstring strain, but when he returned as starter, his skills nosedived. A 9% swing and miss rate as a starter provided us with a pretty good hint at where any potential value lies. Keep him far away from your bankroll and then scratch him off your cheat sheet if you have one. Dude is priced like he’s Aaron Nola here and it’s absurd.

The Pirates will send out Jonathan Brubaker (RHP - PIT) but we’re not going to spend a lot of time on him. Just know that he has 13 K’s in 12 innings but all the market will see is his 7.30 ERA after three starts. His xERA is 4.27 and regardless of what happens here, he’s a better option taking back a tag than Steele is spotting one 100% of the time.

Our Pick

Pittsburgh +138 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto