Houston -1 +170 over SAN FRANCISCO

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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

Houston -1½ +170 over SAN FRANCISCO

9:45 PM EST. When the Astros are a pooch, they are always worthy of consideration and tonight's no different. Framber Valdez (LHP - HOU) has made 11 starts this season and boasts a 6-2 record with a 2.97 ERA. Dude has an otherworldly groundball rate of 71.4%, which is elite+++ and the sample size is large enough that we're not going to discount it. The fact is, dude has had an elite groundball rate or better across all levels since rookie ball. He posted marks of 62.1% and 60% across 70 innings or so in each of 2019 and 2020. His strikeout rate (8.10 K/9) is not elite, but it's decent. To be honest, the strikeouts are a bonus. Valdez is very good at what he does and there is no reason not to believe that he and the Astros will be in this game.

The Giants are coming off a hard fought series with the rival Dodgers that saw them take two of three from Los Angeles and hold a three game lead over the boys from Chavez Ravine. Yesterday was a 5-0 blanking on the back of Johnny Cueto and tonight, Kevin Gausman (RHP - SF) will take his turn. Gausman is enjoying a career year, posting an ERA of just 2.21 with a 9-4 record. While the 20 win pitcher might be dead, Gausman appears to be about as close as we might get in 2021. While he's led his team to the best record in baseball through the first four months, we can't help but think Gausman's stock is trading at an all time high. There aren't many nits to pick, but a high strand rate of 83.2% and an xERA that is more than a point higher than his surface number (2.21) might suggest that Gausman might be a touch overvalued.


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Our Pick

Houston -1 +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)