Detroit @ TEXAS
Detroit -1 +195 over TEXAS

Pinnacle -1½ +216 BET365 -1½ +195 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +200 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

Detroit -1½ +195 over TEXAS

2:05 PM EST. On the surface, Kyle Gibson (RHP - TEX) is going to have some curb appeal with his sub 2.00 ERA (1.98). A flawless 6-0 record for a team that is going to lose 100 games might also jump off the page for anybody that is looking for an easy winner today. Furthering Gibson’s market credibility are his numbers since his return from the IL at the start of June, as he's 3-0 with an ERA of 1.53 in six starts. However, spotting an inflated price with Gibson or the Rangers cannot be recommended, even though he has cashed in six of his 10 starts this season. While Gibson's xERA is still a tidy 3.30, you are not paying for that number; you are paying a premium on his deflated surface number. Second, an 86.8% strand rate suggests that he has been lucky to get out of a few jams. Over time, that number will correct itself. Third, a lacklustre strikeout rate combined with an average swing and miss rate suggests that Gibson is more smoke and mirrors than a former first round draft pick that is finally living up to the hype at age 33.

We seemingly write about the Tigers daily in this space so we'll keep it short and sweet. Casey Mize (RHP - DET) is legit front of the rotation material and he's just 24. An elite groundball rate (50.8%) this season is just the beginning, as he has all the tools to be an elite pitcher at this level. While some might be scared off by Tigers manager AJ Hinch discussing an innings limit for his young hurlers, the reality is, few SPs are making it past the fifth, innings cap or not. If we only get three or four innings out of Mize today as we did last time out against the White Sox, so be it. The Tigers are a live pooch just about every night and until the market corrects itself on them, we are going to back them when there is value to be had.

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Our Pick

Detroit -1 +195 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.90)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO