Pinnacle -1½ +114 BET365 -1½ +110 SportsInteraction -1½ +111 BetOnline -1½ +113 Bookmaker -1½ +110

Posted at 2:45 PM EST. 

Philadelphia -1½ +114 over CHICAGO

8:05 PM EST. Aaron Nola’s (RHP - PHI) stock is lower than it should be because of a 4.44 surface ERA after 17 starts. Furthermore, he’s just 5-5 and in his last game against the Marlins, Nola was tagged for nine hits and seven runs in 4.2 innings. As a result of all that, we get him and the Phillies at a severe discount today and we’re on it. Make no mistake, Nola is a rotation anchor that has been hampered by some serious bad luck. He’s posted a career-best swing & miss rate on four-seamer, slider, and change-up. The rest of the package, including a nice groundball lean, remains steady. In those 4.2 frames against the Fish, he struck out 11 batters. His ERA last game was 13.50 while his xERA was 2.21. His xERA on the year is an elite 3.49 and he’ll now face a Cubs’ squad that has struck out more than any team (28.8%) in the majors since June 1. Over that same span, the Cubs team batting average is .194.

In 2020, Jake Arrieta (RHP - CHC) finished with an ERA above 5.00 for the first time since 2012. With four wins, 32 strikeouts, a 5.08 ERA, and a 1.51 WHIP in 44 IP in 2020, Jake the Mistake posted another negative ROI. Through 73 IP in 2021, his five wins, 62 strikeouts, 5.57 ERA, and 1.57 WHIP tell a similar story. In other words, Arrieta’s declining skills don't offer much hope.

Arrieta’s skills are still in decline mode. His sinker-first approach and below-average swing & miss rate (8%) and K% should keep his strikeouts below average again. He is in the bottom 10% among all qualified starters in allowing hard contact. His line drive rate over his past five starts is 31%, which is the highest in the entire league over that span. As swings-and-misses dry up, strikeouts are evaporating. That leaves him as a sinkerballer that gets hammered. As far as favorites are concerned, Aaron Nola and the Phillies are the bargain of the day. We also love that the wind is either blowing out today at Wrigley or it is neutral. With a total of 9½, we like our chances even more.

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