Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:50 PM EST.
Detroit +180 over CHICAGO
8:10 PM EST. We’re definitely going to take a stab at the Tigers with a takeback like this. Casey Mize (RHP- DET) has been pitching well all season, with a 3.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and he's been especially strong recently, only allowing six earned runs over his last 31 innings covering five starts. The 24-year-old Mize was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft, and what we're seeing from him so far in 2021 represents an overall improvement from his struggling MLB debut last year. He has just 47 K’s in 58 frames but that, too, is improving, as he struck out seven in five innings in his last start. He has an elite groundball rate of 51%. Mize has been at his best on the road with a 2.61/3.36 ERA/xERA split.
There are several reasons why Lance Lynn (RHP - CHW) is way overpriced. First, he pitches for the White Sox, who own the best record in the AL. Second, Lynn has a 6-1 record but in reality, the South Side are 6-3 when he starts but most of the market is not aware of that. Finally, and perhaps most influential is that Lynn has a 1.37 ERA after nine starts to go along with his 57 K’s in 53 innings. Yes indeed, on the surface, Lance Lynn and the age of 34 is a Cy Young candidate for the first time in his decade long career. Here’s what the market isn't aware of. Dude has an xERA of 4.34, which gives him the biggest discrepancy between ERA and xERA in the majors. He also has an 87.8% strand rate, which is on the extreme side of good fortune. Rounding out Lynn’s good fortune is his .222 BABIP. To put that into perspective, Yankees ace, Gerritt Cole, who is also starting today has a BABIP of .298. Finally, Lance Lynn has a batted ball profile of 33% grounders, 23% line-drives and 44% fly-balls, yet his HR/F is a measly 6.3%. We’re not saying Lynn is a stiff, as he’s been serviceable and even very good for years. However, his surface stats are representing him as an All-Star with Cy Young possibilities when in fact, he’s nothing of the sort. He’s been very, very lucky and the Tigers are precisely the under the radar team we want to be backing against overvalued starters.
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Detroit +180 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.60)